What the First Quarter Actually Tells Us About the Portland Housing Market
The first three months of 2026 told a story that is worth reading carefully, because it is more nuanced than either the optimists or the pessimists would have you believe.
January started slow. Closed sales were down 8.4% from January 2025, inventory climbed to 4.3 months, and homes were sitting an average of 89 days before going under contract, eight days longer than the same month a year ago. The market felt hesitant, and there were real reasons for it: mortgage rates were hovering around 6.2% to 6.4%, tariff-driven inflation concerns were back in the news, and broader economic uncertainty was keeping a meaningful number of buyers on the sidelines.
February started showing some movement. New listings jumped 17% over February 2025, which told us sellers were ready to go even if buyers were still warming up. Pending sales were up 10.5% year over year. Inventory ticked down to 3.6 months. The direction was improving.
By March the picture looked noticeably different. Pending sales were up 5.5% over March 2025. Closed sales were up 11%. Inventory dropped to 3.0 months, matching the same level it sat at in March 2024. Market time fell to 79 days. The spring market arrived, even if it arrived cautiously.
What does this mean for prices?
Essentially flat, which is not a bad thing. The rolling 12-month average sale price for the Portland metro is down less than half a percent compared to the prior 12 months. The median on that same rolling basis holds at $545,000. Month-specific median prices in March came in at $543,800, up from $525,000 in February. Prices are not falling. They are also not running away. For buyers waiting for a crash, the data does not support that. For sellers worried about timing, the flat price environment combined with rising buyer activity in March is a reasonable window.
What is holding people back nationally?
It would be dishonest to write a first quarter market post without acknowledging the broader context. Mortgage rates hit 6.46% in early April, a seven-month high, driven by renewed inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty. Economists have described the spring market as being in a holding pattern, with buyers and sellers both waiting for clearer signals. Rate volatility tied to oil prices and broader economic instability has made some buyers cautious, even as touring activity and pending sales show real improvement.
The Portland data reflects this dynamic. The market is moving, but it is moving carefully. Homes that are priced well and presented well are finding buyers. Homes that are not are sitting longer than sellers expect.
What we are watching for the rest of spring
If rates stabilize in the 6% to 6.3% range, the pent-up demand that built through a slow 2025 has somewhere to go. Portland's inventory, while higher than last year, is still well below pre-pandemic norms. The affordability index for the metro as of March shows that a family earning the median income can cover 98% of the monthly payment on a median-priced home with 20% down at current rates. That is tight, but it is not broken.
The buyers who are active right now tend to be serious. They are showing up, asking good questions, and taking their time. That is not a bad market. That is a real one.
Read the source data
All figures in this post come directly from the RMLS Market Action Reports for January, February, and March 2026. You can download each report below.
Navigating a Move to or from Portland?
Whether you are buying first, selling first, or trying to do both at once, the process has more moving parts than most people expect. We work with clients who want to understand their options before making a move.
We follow the Portland market closely because it is the market we work in every day.
If you have questions about what these numbers mean for your specific situation, whether you are thinking about selling, buying, or just trying to understand where things are headed, we are easy to reach.
Kim Campbell, Realtor | PSA, RENE | Licensed Oregon Broker
Francisco Salgado, Realtor | MCNE, EA | Licensed Oregon and Washington Broker
Campbell Salgado Real Estate Group with Soldera Properties
